Tuesday, September 14, 2010

How accurate are current climate change predictions?

Is it possible to predict future climate without knowing how did climate of the past look like? By knowing trends in past climate, and what influenced changes in past climate the scientists would be able to predict with much bigger level of certainty what will happen to our climate in years to come, and will the climate change really reach a catastrophic level as many predict it will.

Scientists still need to learn and discover so many different factors that have influenced past climate on our planet before being able to predict with some accuracy what's gonna happen with our climate in future because history can teach us many things about future.

Yes, by the current science standards it looks very likely that climate change will reach catastrophic proportions if our carbon emissions continue to rise, but very likely isn't the same as certainly, and scientists despite their enormous efforts and plenty research still cannot guarantee nothing when it comes to climate change.

This is because climate change phenomenon has so many different dimensions, each of which is not only influenced by certain known and unknown factors but also with the different combinations of these factors. In simple words, climate change issue is still too complex for today's science, and despite all sorts of research still more in the sphere in guessing than having the actual facts.

We know that Earth went through a periods of different climate in its history such as ice age but we still do not entirely know the mechanisms that lead to these changes.

This is the reason why I believe we should focus more on studying the Earth's past climate rather than guessing without reliable facts what will happen in the future. We need to read the past climate patterns, and then use this data to get some straight facts about our climate.

Climate change science like any other science needs to be based on facts, and not on assumptions and wild guesses.

What's your view on this?